Considering he produced. In order to be an outlier and to challenge Rose's hit record, Jeter would need to maintain his previous high level of production for another three or four seasons, and then maintain a gentle fade into his 40s. The large drop off last year suggests he'll achieve neither. Now, I've been watching and researching baseball long enough to not overreact to any single season, especially when dealing with a very talented, HOF-level player.
Even if age did cause his off season, he could very well make adjustments that puts him on track again for a couple more seasons. In , after nine straight. Considering he was 33, I'm sure some people thought age was creeping into his game. He rebounded to hit. Luke Appling did the same as Rose, collapsing to. There was reason to believe he had entered his decline. He bounced back to lead the league in batting at 36, went off to serve in WWII for two years, and amazingly came back and hit. Perhaps Jeter has a rebound in him like a Rose or an Appling.
He is already an outlier performing as he has in , and even I hope so. It'll make for an interesting story as I always enjoy watch aging players hold off father time, especially after an off season, revisiting past greatness for a season or two as they glide in toward Yet even if Jeter has this in him, he still has almost no chance of breaking Rose's record because unlike Rose, Jeter is only a short stop, and his skill set won't translate well to being a DH, as it would for someone like A-Rod. So even if he holds off time for a few more years, once he starts to fade, he doesn't have a logical position to move to.
The Yankees will also begin to sit him more to give him rest, and as he slips, will move him down in the order, further reducing his hit chances. Last, the Yankees are NOT a sentimental organization when it comes to players. Once he's no longer productive he will be moved out of the line up on a regular basis. Jeter would have to take his act on the road, just as Rose did, and I don't see Jeter doing that at all.
One final note about the Jeter thing. The only way he can get near or Rose, is he has to at least want to, admit he wants to and be willing to. He has never answered a question directly about that and it is probably to early for a reporter to ask him. For Jeter, or anyone for that matter attempting to break Rose's record they have to be able to admit at some point, that the RECORD is what is being played for, there can be no other plausible reason for a 44 year old Jeter to be playing. I think it was pretty obvious that Rose's last few seasons were played simply to get the record.
I don't think if he had hits would he player manage the Reds. He was also in a position as Cincy's favorite son, to insert himself into favorable pitching match-ups in a town where the media is not as unforgiving than New York's. There is also the fact that no matter what people say here, we have to accept that he can certainly, no question about it, break Rose's mark.
The only question is at what price. We have seen dozens of players play well into there 40s, many of them well. But again at what price? I wonder would of Rose continued his pursuit if his lifetime BA would of fell below. I wonder If Rose would of kept going if the Reds cut him? I don't think Jeter will play else where, and the Yankees are not going to give him much playing time if he really starts to go south.
There is just no room on that roster or for the fan's high expectations to cary dead weight. Jeter has expressed interest in owning a club. I think his post career goals are going to loom large after Jeter's contract expires. His biggest obstacle might be that the Yankees have first locked up for 5 more years with Tex, third for 6 more years with A-rod and Giradi seems to enjoy a DH by committee, leaving few spots to hide Jeter.
After that, money and championships and the Hall will all be had, just a matter of what he is willing to do and for how long. Clearly it is very hard for players to reach the projected records postulated above.
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It is almost unfair to predict these things for great players, especially if they are clean. He should be considered to have done very well to hit Some of the posters seem to forget the James calls his projection a toy and not a tool for good reason--he knows it isn't a way of getting accurate projections. It is fun to play with, but not meant as he has stated, as anything but a toy. Ichiro is the ultimate hit machine. Tons of hits, very few walks. Over only 10 MLB seasons he's reached If you figure he missed out on hits by not playing here since the beginning, and I think that's a conservative estimate, then he would be only hits behind Rose entering his age 37 season.
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Very doable. He'll have to settle for as a milestone, but who knows, maybe he could have reached as a full-time MLB player. Ichiro had hits in his Japanese career. Added to the hits he has in his major league career, that gives him at this point of his professional career through age He very well could 'break' Pete Rose's record in another five years, and this is being conservative.
I wonder how this is going to ercognized, if it even is. On the other hand, while there probably exist better methods for projecting career totals, I haven't seen any of them posted on this thread. Jason 30 threatened to show us something, but hasn't come through yet, and perhaps his "15 minutes" are up. Actually, WWII didn't cost Foxx playing time, he was going through a divorce in and wanted to keep his income down until it was finalized. I'm guessing that he finishes with about hits, plays part-time for two more years as a "super-utility" guy, and finishes between Speaker and Musial as 5 on the all-time hit list.
I think he has a pretty good chance of breaking Hank Aaron's record of 17 consecutive seasons with or more hits. I saw the gap and just assumed it was service time. I suspect that the Phillies would have found playing time for Foxx in '45 even without the wartime roster depletion, given their perennial futility both in the standings and at the gate.
They drew less than , fans in both and '41, and finished at least 50 games out of 1st each year and at least 15 games out of 7th. Granted, 1B Nick Etten was one of their few good hitters in that era, but given all the other holes on the roster, they could have worked something out.
Gotta love that 1. Had to be Howie Fox, the only other "fox" in the NL that year. If not, well John Autin, So the chance that not everyone is aware of this record means it should only be mentioned tongue-in-cheek? We are talking hits, right? This is something that only one player in major league history has achieved, and that one player is one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but really it is a joke and not worth serious mention? And of course regardless of how I think about Jeter's chances of breaking it, thus far it has not been broken and using the formula above Jeter would not break it.
Not a mile stone, but Jeter either has or will have the most seasons of double digit homers and steals I suspect that the Phillies would have found playing time for Foxx in '45 even without the wartime roster depletion, given their perennial futility both in the standings and at the gate You're welcome! As for , you may be correct, the Phillies certainly could've used any boost for attendance they could find, especially from a former star in that city; I didn't consider that.
As for the missing years of , another explanation is that in early , he got hit in the head, which led to debilitating sinus headaches. It could've take him a couple years to fully get over it. Just goes to show you the perils in projecting any player's performance out over their entire career as with Jeter Where is Jeter in relation to Rose's Plate appearance record which is one of the greatest outlier's in the record book.
Off hand he needs 8 or 9 years to catch him in this. The question is what happens when he can't play SS any more and doesn't hit well enough to play another position. Rose played 1B for quite a few years when he didn't hit like one. You responded to my question, "What records does Derek Jeter have to shoot for? So when you mentioned the hits record, I thought you were joking -- because I don't think Derek Jeter knows there is such a record exists, and I don't think there's any chance that it could influence his future actions.
I wasn't mocking you for knowing that record, or for taking it seriously. Heck, I'm sure I know some records that Derek Jeter neither knows nor cares about. People think I was joking about Rose being a middle infielder; but remember, he spent less than half of his career in the pastures. I can see Jeter doing something akin to that --moving on to first later in his career if he is close to hits, even though I really can't imagine him sitting still for a DH job.
If only you would realize how stupid your article is. I think he has ZERO chance but not because he had his 2 worst full seasons in the last 3 seasons. How do you calculate that in? My reasoning is simple. Why would he want to stay that long? It's not like he needs the money. He has already seen that the spawn of "The Boss" is nothing like his father- you know, the guy who built the Empire. I hope he has 3 banner seasons putting him in 2nd place all-time in the AL behind Cobb and tells the jerk know in charge to go pound sand and call it a career.
A lot of great hitters -- Mays, Mathews, Banks, Mantle and Frank Robinson to name the better known names mentioned -- each of whom had at least a slight chance to make it. Strangely, the one most notable omission to that list was Henry Aaron, the only one to do it until Barry Bonds came around. The guys you listed were great hitters, the ability to hit for power just being a small part of a greater skill. Mark Reynolds is a power hitter, Rob Deer was a power hitter. When these guys start losing their one attribute, they'll be out of baseball faster than you can spell it.
Jeter won't play long enough to do it. I just don't see Jeter in his early-mid 40s trying to chip away at the recordand I don't see the Yankees sending him out there with diminished skills everyday to do it Especially when decrying the elder Steinbrenner, who is known for similar ugliness. You can always just say why you think he will not attain the record. Which I agree with, though by definition it is not zero chance. I doubt this will happen, but these are several combined ways her could keep going, even if not very good.
Regardless, contrast your tone with the civility of most everyone else on this site. We are not kids calling each other names from a safe distance here. Pujols is a power hitter in the same class as williams and musial. Rob deer and guys like him don't lose their power as much as they flat out lose their limited ability to hit the ball. Reaching out again to Frank I realize my tone 50 sounded smug. At that moment, I was only thinking of whether Jeter would be motivated by the record you cited. Please don't be offended. I think Jeter's biggest obstacle to reaching the hit record is that was not an off year which may signify the beginning of a decline, but was a fluke year that interrupted what has been a steady downward flow in Jeter's production since His BA is.
His SLG is. His OBP tells the same story. His home run numbers are 14, 12, 11, His hit totals are , , , It seems very likely that Jeter will struggle to hit. His career, I would think, is almost over. What 64 said. Rose was a better hitter throughout his career overall, and was a much better hitter at age This makes Rose's feat even more remarkable, when you think about it. His hitting ability held up into his late 30s without steroids I assume he was on greenies, on which everyone in baseball was in that era , and he did this in a hitting environment that was much worse than that of Derek Jeter's.
And the guy who held the record before Rose was a better hitter than Rose and Jeter combined. BTW: the link to Pete Rose in the article proper goes to RePete Rose, who doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with Jeter or his father, at least when talking baseball. Strangely, the one most notable omission to that list was Henry Aaron.
But he was basically done after ' So if I've done my math correctly, there was about a 1 in 3 chance at that point that one of Aaron, Mays, Robinson, or Killebrew would break the record, though individually they were all longshots. Milwaukee was a bad home park for HR, Atlanta a good one. So in what should have been decline years his totals stayed high because he was in a more favorable environment. Favorite Toy doesn't see this of course, but go forward a couple of years, so that you are only using Atlanta years in the prediction, and the chance to reach will go way up.
True Kd. That should account for park effects, so Aaron, who seemed to grow a gut by the end, hit at a high level late in his career, without PEDs or modern conditioning. The game ended after 7 innings. There were nineteen. Todd now sits at 7th place all-time with hits. Freitag also strengthened his top spot for career on base percentage. The big lefty now has a career OBP. There were six no-hitters spun this season.
In total, there have been 63 no-hitters thrown in 91 seasons of CRBL play. Currently with career strikeouts, Gray is the fourth pitcher in league history to cross the K barrier.
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